DATE: Wed 01 Aug 2012
BY: Stephen Aldridge
Numeritas last week hosted a very successful seminar on modelling for renewable generators in 2017 based on the recent draft energy bill 2012 in association with Redpoint Energy.
This event was marketed to Numeritas contacts and clients focusing in the renewables space. With the new Energy bill draft recently released we started by looking at the key drivers and anatomy of a renewables model. Presenter Stephen Aldridge took a brief look at the forecast P50 and P90 scenarios, the expected key outputs and some background on the CfD (contracts for difference) highlights. When modelling in these scenarios Stephen considered the Political, Economic, Technological and Financing drivers. With a wealth of knowledge in forecasting and reviewing many alternate energy models Stephen was able to give good insight about dealing with forecast inaccuracy; over commitment and under commitment.
With any proposed bill there are many project decision factors to consider, particularly with the choice between CfD and the current regime until 2017. These were touched on in the discussion focusing on the difference between the current and proposed mechanisms and how to weigh the multiple uncertainties involved. One way of dealing with this is by using the Monte-Carlo simulation where a model is run many thousands of times using different data sets, producing summary output data for analysis.
All of the slides featured in the presentation can be viewed here or alternately if you have further need for information then please contact us directly.
Stephen is a Chartered Management Accountant and has over ten years of financial modelling experience both at KPMG and Deloitte. His early career included engineering, sales and corporate management roles. In 2004, Stephen joined Numeritas as a co-owner and a Managing Director.
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